Dr Michael Baker
12 Cherry Court, Uxbridge Rd
Pinner, HA5 3PS
Phone: 020 7193 3216
Mobile: 07530 345551

F Johnson - Central Statistical Office

In this letter about work that I did in 1978 and 1979, Fred Johnson, Central Statistical Office, refers to me as a world expert on UK transport statistics.

royal crest

C A B I N E T   O F F I C E

Central Statistical Office

Great George Street, London SWIP 3AQ Telephone 01-233 7693


Our ref: D2/22

22 March 1979


Dear Mike


There has been some discussion between the CSO and the Department of the Environment about the appropriate weight to be given to the road haulage industry (excluding own account) in the index of GDP(0). The weight is based on the gross value added in the industry in 1975 and the main problem is over the size of the profits component of value added.

The national accounts derive their estimates of value added from inland revenue returns and these show considerably lower profits than those implied from other sources - including the estimates of input and output of road haulage which you prepared for the 1974 input/output tables. Table 5 of your first report (copy attached) shows total output of £2436m and total inputs (including labour costs) of £1693m thus giving a residual profit figure of £743m. This is about twice as large as the revenue estimate.

What I would like to ask is whether you have any views on the reliability of your estimates. I realise that they are based largely on the Commercial Motor tables of operating costs and to that extent simply mirror the soundness of those tables. But do you know of any other sources which might provide an alternative estimate of profitability in road haulage?

I am sorry to drag you into what is essentially an internal problem but now that you are a world expert on UK transport statistics could we ask for some free advice? I am copying this to Keith Childs in the GDP(0) section here and Mike Haslam at DoE.

Yours sincerely

[Signed Fred Johnson]


Mr M Baker
Energy Research Group
Open University
Walton Hall
Milton Keynes




Next: C Wallace - Crouch & Hogg


Warwick O'Brien, O'Brien Lovrinov Crafter Pty Ltd
Michael's advice was well researched and professionally presented to us within good time. I am happy to commend him to any seeking his services.

M J G Lockyer, Central Statistical Office
I must congratulate you on the thoroughness and care that have obviously been taken to arrive at these very comprehensive results.